The first is changing patterns of growth.…growth can no longer be taken as a given, even over the longer term. In the last decade a dozen or so countries ended up with a lower level of real GDP than they started with… Over the next decade the world will have to get used to a slowing China

The fastest-growing countries will be in Africa (although not Nigeria) and south and south-east Asia, with Bangladesh, Kenya and the Philippines all looking at a strong decade.


A second, and related, development that needs to be top of mind for the 2020s is ageing. On the one hand, this will mean near-zero growth for the economies whose populations are ageing and declining the fastest, like Japan, Italy and Portugal. But it will increasingly cause difficulties —such as strengthening currencies and aged care needs— in emerging markets like Chile, Russia and Thailand.


A third trend I expect is a continuation of political instability: rising literacy and falling costs of communication will continue to revolutionise politics in emerging markets. … policies that result from these shifts in communication do not always facilitate well-being or growth.


The fourth (and final) trend I suggest here is preparation for a sustained divergence between the US and China. … Both sides will be putting companies and other countries into uncomfortable positions as a result.